On September 16, 2024, two federal by-elections were held in the ridings of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, Quebec, and Elmwood–Transcona, Manitoba. These by-elections were critical in showcasing shifting political dynamics in both regions. 

LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (QC) By-Election Overview

The by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, a traditional Liberal stronghold, saw an unprecedented 91 candidates on the ballot, the highest number in Canadian federal election history. This influx was largely driven by The Longest Ballot Committee’s protest against the first-past-the-post electoral system.

Key Candidates:

• Liberal Party: Laura-Ann Palestini
  Palestini is a lifelong resident of LaSalle and has served on the LaSalle Borough Council for four terms, now representing LaSalle on the Montréal City Council. Her deep involvement in the community, including roles with the LaSalle Hospital Foundation,  the Henri-Lemieux Cultural and Community Center, and the Théâtre Desjardins, highlighted her strong local ties.

• NDP: Craig Sauvé
  Craig Sauvé has served as a city councillor for the South-West borough since 2013 and has held the position of acting mayor since 2021. His extensive experience includes involvement with the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA) as a member of its Membership Committee, as well as serving on the boards of two commercial development corporations. Additionally, Sauvé brings a diverse background with previous roles as a community radio host and parliamentary assistant to an NDP MP.

• Bloc Québécois: Louis-Philippe Sauvé
  Louis-Philippe Sauvé has held several notable political roles, particularly within the parliamentary and research department of the Bloc Québécois, where he worked on key issues such as Indigenous Affairs, Fisheries, and Labour. He currently serves as the communications and administration coordinator at the Institut de recherche en économie contemporaine (IREC).

Key results include:

• Bloc Québécois (Louis-Philippe Sauvé): Winner with 8,884 votes (28.0%) 

  • 2021 comparison: +5.9% from 22.1% in 2021​

• Liberal Party (Laura-Ann Palestini): Second with 8,636 votes (27.2%)

  • 2021 comparison: -15.7% drop from 42.9% in 2021​ 

• New Democratic Party (Craig Sauvé): Third with 8,262 votes (26.1 %)

  • 2021 comparison: +6.7% increase from 19.4% in 2021​ 

This by-election marks a notable victory for the Bloc Québécois, who secured the seat with only a 0.8% lead over the Liberal Party, showcasing a highly competitive electoral battle.

Elmwood–Transcona (MB) By-Election Overview

In Elmwood–Transcona, historically an NDP-dominated riding, the by-election followed the resignation of former MP Daniel Blaikie. The NDP has long held this seat, except for a brief period when it was won by a Conservative candidate in 2011.

Key Candidates:

• Liberal Party: Ian MacIntyre
  Ian MacIntyre is a retired educator with 24 years of service in the River East Transcona School Division. In addition to his teaching career, he has held leadership roles, including serving as president of the Manitoba Teacher’s Society. Currently, he dedicates his time as a board member for a non-profit community organization that provides housing and support for individuals with developmental disabilities, reflecting his continued commitment to advocacy and community service. 

• Conservative Party: Colin Reynolds
  Reynolds is a skilled construction electrician and proud member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, a union that represents over 70,000 professionals across Canada.

• NDP: Leila Dance
  Leila Dance, a lifelong resident of Elmwood-Transcona, has dedicated the past four years to serving as the executive director of the Transcona Business Improvement Zone (BIZ). With over two decades of experience in the non-profit sector, she has worked with notable organizations such as the Children's Wish Foundation, the ALS Society of Manitoba, the Kidney Foundation, and the Park City West Community Centre, demonstrating her commitment to community development and support.

Key results include:

• New Democratic Party (Leila Dance): Winner with 13,606 votes (48.1%)

  • 2021 comparison: -1.55% drop from 49.69% in 2021

• Conservative Party (Colin Reynolds): Second with 12,448 votes (44.0%)

  • 2021 comparison: +15.92% increase from 28.13% in 2021

• Liberal Party (Ian MacIntyre): Third with 1,360 votes (4.8 %)

  • 2021 comparison: -9.93% drop from 14.74% in 2021

The victory for the NDP reaffirms their stronghold in the region, continuing the Blaikie family's legacy in the riding. The Conservative Party, while competitive, was unable to surpass the NDP's dominance.

Key takeaways

• What will Trudeau do? For the Trudeau Liberal’s, this is yet another setback. However, Prime Minister Trudeau has already signaled last week that he does not intend to resign, even if his party suffers by-election losses. This anticipation tempers any expectations of a major shake-up within the Liberal Party in the immediate aftermath.

• Mixed outcome for the NDP: The NDP will be relieved to have retained their seat in Manitoba, but the sight of the Conservative Party closing in behind them is a cause for concern. This could signal rising competition in areas they typically consider safe, leading to a more unsettled feeling within their ranks.

• The rise of the Bloc Québécois: The Montreal vote split has allowed the Bloc Québécois to gain by slipping through the middle. This may signal similar dynamics in a general election, where opposition divisions could again benefit the Bloc.

• Who are the ultimate winners of the night? As for who came out on top of the night, the Conservatives are likely feeling confident. Their growing vote share in key competitive ridings positions them well, especially as the other three parties continue to split votes in areas that the CPC are not competitive regardless. This upward momentum in Manitoba could be an encouraging sign for their prospects in future elections.